Behold, the Maryland Terrapins are approaching.
Maryland’s four-game winning streak has propelled it to the upper echelon of the Big Ten standings. It has the potential to distance itself from the competition when it meets the Michigan State Spartans tonight.
The Terrapins have achieved victory and covered the spread in four successive games, with only one defeat in their last nine contests since mid-January (6-3 ATS). The streak intersects with the Spartans’ momentum, since MSU is now on a three-game winning streak.
In a significant contest, I am favoring the marginal home team in my predictions for the Michigan State versus Maryland game and college basketball selections for Wednesday, February 26.
Prediction for the Michigan State versus Maryland matchup
My optimal wager: Maryland -3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My assessment
The calendar approaches the notorious month of “Izzo,” and the head coach of the Michigan State Spartans has his team reaching optimal performance once more.
The Spartans have secured three consecutive victories, propelling themselves into contention for the conference lead by defeating prominent rivals Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan. Nonetheless, that performance appears less remarkable in hindsight, considering the setbacks of the Boilermakers and Illini (who were contending with illness throughout the month) and the frigid shooting from the Wolverines.
The composition of the Maryland Terrapins presents a disadvantageous matchup for MSU. The Terps are an exceptional inside-out squad and present a significantly more formidable perimeter threat than the Spartans have encountered in quite some time. The defensive statistics of Michigan State are inflated due to a recent series of one-dimensional opponents that are among the least effective 3-point shooting teams in the Big Ten.
Conversely, Maryland is the premier 3-point shooting team in the league and has exhibited even greater accuracy from long range during this stretch, converting 37 of 88 attempts from outside the arc in the last four games.
Nonetheless, the Terrapins are not exclusively reliant on three-point shots, as all five starters are contributing double-digit points. They are supported by the interior scoring of Derik Queen and Julian Reese, who has the athleticism to sprint, occupy lanes on fast breaks, and complete plays at the hoop.
This also renders UM highly effective against comparable transition offenses, which constitute the cornerstone of Tom Izzo’s programs. Michigan State excels at pressuring opponents and penetrating the interior before the defense can establish itself. The Terrapins rank within the Top 20 for transition defense, as reported by ShotQualityBets, limiting opponents to an average of 6.5 fastbreak points per game.
Maryland has a commendable record of 10-6-1 against the spread at the XFINITY Center this season, with an average home margin of +23.8, ranking seventh nationally. Game predictions vary from a 2-point victory for the Terps to an 8-point triumph. My prediction indicates a 5-point advantage for Maryland this evening.
The Terps possess the ability to score both in the inside and from the perimeter, and their height and athleticism will hinder Izzo’s fast-paced offense.
The Spartans will be unable to advance the ball and will be compelled to execute halfcourt sets, which will consume time and prevent them from approaching the rim.
Gillespie will evaluate MSU’s three-point defensive capabilities. He has made three or more long-range shots in each of the last three games.
