For tonight’s predictions on the Vikings versus Rams, I focus on Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold for the Wild Card showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Rams.
The wildfires in Southern California compelled the NFL to relocate this game from Los Angeles to State Farm Stadium in Arizona, a modification that enhances Darnold’s prospects, as my NFL selections anticipate he will utilize both his arm and legs to advance the chains this evening.
Prediction for the Vikings versus Rams matchup
Point spread selection: Rams +2.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Moneyline selection: Rams moneyline (+118 at Caesars)
Over/Under selection: Over 48 (-110 at Caesars)
Optimal choice: Sam Darnold More than 11.5 rushing yards (-125 at Caesars)
Prediction for the spread between the Vikings and Rams
The initial spread designated the Rams as 2.5-point away underdogs, with subsequent adjustments favoring Los Angeles, reducing the line to Minnesota -1.5. Following the league’s announcement on the relocation to Arizona, NFL odds re-established the NFC Wild Card spread at Vikings -2.5.
The juggling results in a home-field advantage of one point at SoFi Stadium, which is unsurprisingly minimal given that the venue is frequently dominated by visiting fans each week.
In my “NFL Underdogs” column, I indicated my support for the Rams at +1.5 prior to the relocation to Glendale due to the fires. The reality is that the Vikings face considerable travel demands (consecutive away games and the third in four weeks), and their red-zone difficulties will persist in the desert.
Prediction for the Vikings versus Rams moneyline
The spread was declining for the initial scheduling in L.A. and the moneyline approached a break-even point at certain sportsbooks prior to the formal relocation to Arizona. Currently, Minnesota is favored at -150 to win outright, while Los Angeles is positioned at +125.
I still favor the Rams as underdogs and believe they could emerge victorious.
Prediction for the Over/Under in the Vikings vs. Rams matchup
The re-established Over/Under remained consistent with the trajectory of the original total prior to the relocation to Arizona. The figure was approximately 47.5 and reached 48 points at certain establishments, which is the current focus.
I am inclined to favor the Over. We possess two offensive strategies capable of executing significant plays downfield, alongside two defensive units that have conceded substantial plays and points during the latter half of the season.
My optimal choice: Sam Darnold Exceeding 11.5 rushing yards (-125 at Caesars)
My assessment
Sam Darnold has have a terrific season with the Minnesota Vikings. Although serving as a temporary quarterback until J.J. McCarthy’s readiness, the seasoned quarterback astonished all with his performance and rose to the occasion when the star rookie sustained an injury over the offseason.
The most unexpected aspect of Darnold’s performance is his infrequent utilization of his legs. He is an elusive and rapid runner when compelled to secure the ball and sprint. He has demonstrated the capacity to achieve significant yardage with his legs at times in 2024, including four games in which he rushed for over 20 yards.
On Monday, the NFL player prop markets set Darnold’s rushing total at 11.5 yards Over/Under, just below his season average of 12.5 rushing yards per game.
Given that this is his inaugural postseason start and the Los Angeles Rams possess an intimate understanding of the Vikings’ offensive tendencies—attributable to Sean McVay’s mentorship of Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell—Darnold may be inclined to scramble if his initial and secondary throwing options are unavailable.
He rushed three times for a mere six yards during the regular season encounter against the Rams in Week 8. Los Angeles has faced few agile quarterbacks, but when it has, it has been severely outmatched by those dual-threat players.
Kyler Murray accumulated 91 rushing yards over two games, Jalen Hurts had 39 yards, Josh Allen gained 82 yards against Los Angeles, and Brock Purdy, possessing comparable “sneaky speed” to Darnold, concluded with 41 rushing yards in a Week 3 contest against Los Angeles.
Quarterbacks frequently exhibit increased running during the playoffs, and expectations for Darnold acknowledge his capacity to achieve gains on the ground.
Models vary from 10.9 yards to 18.4 yards, with most predictions indicating over 12 rushing yards on Monday. Darnold’s rushing total is just under 15 yards.
