The Los Angeles Lakers achieved a significant victory against the Nuggets on Wednesday. However, can they secure a second win in consecutive days when Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and the Milwaukee Bucks visit tonight?
My predictions for the Bucks versus Lakers anticipate Luka Doncic guiding the Lakers to a surprising home victory.
Examine my NBA selections to understand the rationale for wagering on the Over for Doncic’s combined performance prop on Thursday, March 20.
Prediction for the Bucks against Lakers matchup
My optimal choice: Luka Doncic Exceeding 48.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-115 at bet365)
My assessment
In LeBron James’s absence, the Los Angeles Lakers’ fortunes hinge on Luka Doncic’s performance, and given his recent form, LA is well-positioned to achieve a home upset this evening.
Doncic has excelled in his last eight games, averaging 31 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 9.3 assists. He is the inaugural player in Lakers history to achieve those averages in any eight-game span, placing him in an elite category for such a prestigious team.
Doncic scored 21 points in the first quarter against the visiting Nuggets Thursday night. The Lakers established a substantial advantage by the end of the third quarter, allowing Doncic to rest until the conclusion, resulting in him playing only 32 minutes and concluding with 47 PRA. If the game had been more competitive, he would have effortlessly surpassed this threshold.
In his last eight games, Doncic has exceeded the Over on four occasions, recording 44, 45, 46, and 47 PRA in the remaining four games. He recorded an impressive 45 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assists against the Milwaukee Bucks in a 20-point road defeat a week ago. He missed the subsequent game against Denver, and thereafter, he has guided his club to three consecutive triumphs.
Doncic surpassed 48.5 PRA in his initial confrontation with the Bucks as a Laker last week. In five previous contests versus Milwaukee as a Maverick, he surpassed the Over on four occasions while averaging over 50 PRA.
This season, the Bucks have permitted opposition point guards to average 41.5 PRA, while allowing 44.6 in their previous seven games. Doncic possesses an exceptionally high usage rate, and he will be relied upon to score, rebound, and facilitate at an elite standard once more. I anticipate that tonight’s contest will be significantly more competitive than last week’s rout, with Doncic playing a pivotal role.
The Bucks possess the 10th-best defensive rating this season at 112, while the Lakers rank 12th at 112.7. In the past five matches, both defences have regressed.
During that period, the Lakers’ offensive rating is 116.8, while the Bucks’ rating is 113.7. This total is minimal, and with Doncic performing brilliantly, Austin Reaves emerging, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard providing significant offensive strength for Milwaukee, this is a straightforward Over.
The Lakers have secured three consecutive victories, and I am not wagering on the cessation of that streak this evening. Los Angeles has a record of 28-7 at home this season, including 6-2 as the underdog. The Lakers have achieved victory in seven of ten games during the second leg of back-to-back matchups, and the squad holds a record of 29-13 after a win.
The Bucks possess a record of 14-18 in away games and 11-8 as the away favourite. Milwaukee has a record of 12-19-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road and 7-12 ATS as the road favourite. The Lakers have succeeded in 24 of 35 home games and six of eight as the home underdog.
This is a narrow margin, and my optimal wager is to select the Lakers to win outright at favourable odds.
