Even if we anticipate a plethora of points due to the matchup of two first-rate offenses, we also anticipate a close contest that makes it difficult for Alabama to cover a modest 3.5-point spread against Florida.
Tonight at Coleman Coliseum, a highly anticipated clash will take place between the fifth-ranked Florida Gators and the seventh-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide.
My Florida vs. Alabama picks don’t have the Crimson Tide coming out on top tonight, especially since they’ve lost three of their previous five games.
For Wednesday, March 5 at 7 o’clock, I’ve compiled my top free college basketball picks.
Forecast: Florida vs. Alabama
My top choice
Bet365 has Florida at -3.5 (-110).
My evaluation
Following last weekend’s crushing defeat at the hands of Tennessee, the Alabama Crimson Tide will look to get back on track this Saturday. Several coaching and player mistakes caused the Tide to squander a four-point lead with 30 seconds remaining.
After suffering a road loss at Georgia last Tuesday, the Florida Gators bounced back on Saturday with a dominant 89-70 victory over No. 12 Texas A&M.
When it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency, the Tide are third in the nation and the Gators are fourth, but both teams have fantastic offenses. Their dynamic backcourts dictate play and distribute the ball superbly, giving both teams a leg up. In addition, they are masters at getting to the hoop and converting offensive glass turnovers.
The fact that Florida is so much better at protecting the ball is a major distinction. When compared to the Crimson Tide, the Gators’ turnover rate ranks 178th in the nation.
Because of that and the fact that Alabama doesn’t apply enough defensive pressure, their turnover margin is -2.8, which puts them in 332nd place in Division I. With a TO margin of +2.1, the Gators rank 62nd, and according to ShotQuality Bets, they have excellent rim defense (98th) and transition defense (18th).
Who you root for in this battle depends on your belief that Alabama’s home-court advantage will be offset by Florida’s superior defense.
In the end, I believe Florida has a better chance of getting the stops it needed in the final minutes, particularly considering the inexperience and bad coaching errors that Bama made on occasion.
Despite the astonishing total of 178.5, I am still inclined to go with the Over. Remember that both teams scored more than 190 points in each of their prior three encounters, and that the totals were Over in the previous seven meetings between these two teams. In conference games, the Tide have an 8-3 over/under record when the total is more than 165.
With both teams playing at a high speed, there should be an abundance of rebounds for Clifford Omoruyi, who has collected seven or more boards in eight of his past ten games. Also, Alabama’s top rebounder Grant Nelson (8.0 RPG) is doubtful to participate, thus Omoruyi will likely see more action than normal.
