When Vanderbilt comes to Rupp Arena tonight, Kentucky will be looking to go back to winning ways in SEC play.
As for the Commodores, who could really use a victory to improve their tournament resume. In my Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky predictions, I have AJ Hoggard helping the visitors secure a double-digit victory.
If you want to know how, check out my February 19th college basketball predictions.
Forecast for the Vanderbilt-Kentucky match
According to bet365, my best bet is -125 on AJ Hoggard with 5+ assists.
In this study, I will explain
Tre Johnson had a lot of possessions in Texas’s victory over Kentucky over the weekend. Therefore, no Longhorn finished the game with more than four assists.
But Wildcats opponents with point guards who can dish it out often let up a plethora of assists. Plus, I think AJ Hoggard will have another solid performance with the assist line since Kentucky will be without Lamont Butler tonight.
When Butler isn’t playing at a high level, the Wildcats’ assist rate defense—which ranks them in the middle of the SEC—increases dramatically. Butler still let Hoggard get six assists in the first encounter, despite playing 27 minutes.
While this reduced Hoggard’s scoring production (he shot 2-for-8, resulting in just five points), he did an excellent job setting up his teammates for success. Not only that, but it started a run of six games in which he has had five assists or more in every game but one.
When he travels, he maintains the same level of consistency. Hoggard has contributed to four of Vanderbilt’s previous five away games with five or more assists. Despite the team’s loss in each of those games, Vanderbilt’s point guard is still doing a great job of setting up his teammates with quality shots by averaging about 40% assists.
The Wildcats have a really hard time defending against penetration, but Hoggard is great at going downhill off the dribble. Not only that, but they rank 351st in defensive spacing according to ShotQuality and have one of the lowest turnover forcing rates among collegiate basketball teams.
I was hoping for at least one more assist than Hoggard’s very low floor of five, and while the -125 odds are a little high, I am still not surprised. I’ll bet on him to get five assists or more, and I might even put a little money on 7 assists or more at +300.
I anticipate that Jason Edwards will be among the primary gainers when Hoggard breaches. The guard missed six of ten field goal tries and scored twenty-four points in Saturday’s loss against Tennessee. He will have another great game, as he has scored 20+ points in each of Vanderbilt’s previous five conference road games.
The offensive production of the Wildcats has diminished after the departures of Butler and Jaxson Robinson. Late in the game, when the shot clock was winding down, Robinson flourished, and Butler was fantastic with the ball.
So far this season, Kentucky is winless in six of its previous seven games, with the 84-point loss to Arkansas being their only exception. Vanderbilt will manage to contain the Wildcats to under 84 points by getting enough stops and controlling the tempo.
