With a victory tonight, the Miami Heat and the Atlanta Hawks can move out of the Play-In Tournament and into the Top-6 seeding in the Eastern Conference playoffs, respectively.
In my NBA picks and predictions for Monday, February 24, I anticipate a high-scoring shootout between Trae Young and Tyler Herro due to Miami’s offence having multiple reliable scorers and Atlanta’s non-existent defence.
Hawks vs. Heat forecast
At bet365, I recommend going with the over (228).
This is what I’ve determined
Although they play very different types of basketball, the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat have both been better bets going into this season than Unders. Bettors have a 63–49 (56.2%) advantage on the Over, and despite Miami’s defense-first philosophy, the team has won three in a row when the total has been surpassed.
Part of the reason for this is because the offence now has two superstars in Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, and with the arrival of Andrew Wiggins, the squad now has a reliable third threat. Thanks to those three, the Heat have been averaging 115.3 points per game in their past three games, so they should have no trouble putting the Hawks’ defence to the test.
With 119.6 points per game, Atlanta ranks 28th in the NBA in points allowed. They also allow the second-highest field goal percentage at 48.3% and the fifth-most 3-pointers per game at 14.1%. With Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Davion Mitchell as their reliable shooters, the Heat rank eleventh in three-pointers made per game (13.9). Your weak perimeter defence could be an issue against them.
Defensively, the Hawks have been utterly embarrassed recently as well. February field goal percentage is 50.7% and points scored at 125.1 per game for Quin Snyder’s squad. Averaging 126.1 points per game this month, their offence has been the key that has kept them in games and in the postseason hunt.
The Hawks, coached by Trae Young, have a high-speed offensive that makes them good at hitting Overs, and they rank eighth in the league in points per game (117.0). When it comes to pace rating (103.4) and field goal attempts per game (92.1), Atlanta is in second place.
The Heat may be able to score despite having a good defence because of Atlanta’s style of play. On top of that, Miami ranks dead last in the league in two-point percentage allowed(54%) and ninth-worst in three-pointers allowed per game (13.8).
For the seventh time in eleven games, the Hawks can force the Over by utilising Young’s shooting and passing prowess against this Miami defence.
There are just two players in the NBA who have averaged ten or more assists thus far this year. The first is Nikola Jokic, who has won the MVP award three times; the second is Young, a former Oklahoma star who is currently leading the NBA in assists per game (11.4), 1.2 more than Jokic.
As a point guard, he should have no problem going over 10.5 against the Heat, who have allowed the fifth-most assists per game to opposing teams this season (9.43). But the Hawks’ defence isn’t good against big men, so Adebayo can score against them.
In their last four games, Atlanta has given up 24.28 points per game to power forwards, which is third highest in the NBA, while Adebayo has averaged 23 points per game during that time. The 18 games this season that the Kentucky product has played in have seen him go above 19.5 points.
