The New York Knicks will attempt to recover from a challenging road trip as they return to Madison Square Garden to face the Miami Heat on Monday night.
New York is the superior club in this matchup and is expected to dominate a faltering opponent; therefore, I am selecting them to cover in my predictions for the Heat vs. Knicks game.
Continue reading for a comprehensive analysis of tonight’s contest in my complimentary NBA selections for Monday, March 17.
Prediction for the Heat versus Knicks matchup
My optimal wager: Knicks -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
My assessment
Although the New York Knicks have not performed identically in the absence of Jalen Brunson, who has been sidelined for four games due to an ankle injury, they have nonetheless secured victories in two of those contests.
Given that those defeats occurred against the Clippers and Warriors during a West Coast road trip, I believe we should not underestimate the Knicks at this moment, particularly when they are competing at home.
Conversely, the Miami Heat are now performing poorly. The Heat are maintaining a position in the Play-In tournament; nevertheless, they have suffered seven consecutive losses and have not covered the spread in their last five games.
Since March 2, they have not achieved a score beyond 110 points and have permitted opponents to average 112 points per game during their losing streak. This is favourable until one recalls that Miami has averaging merely 109.3 points per game this season, a figure that has declined since the trade of Jimmy Butler.
In a contest between two teams that have recently encountered difficulties, especially offensively, it appears that bookies are penalising the Knicks more than the Heat. I perceive it as an error, given the New York squad have a far superior roster when Butler and Brunson are excluded from the lineups these teams used for the majority of the year.
Aside from Brunson, the Knicks remain generally healthy, with Karl-Anthony Towns fully equipped to assume the position of primary scorer in the interim. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby are proficient scorers, and although the offence is currently struggling, this club is likely to resolve its issues, particularly on home turf.
The Heat possess few formidable assets. Tyler Herro is experiencing an excellent season; but, Bam Adebayo is likely to encounter difficulties in this game against Towns, and Andrew Wiggins is listed as day-to-day due to a leg ailment.
This possesses all the characteristics of a rebound game for the Knicks, who will be pleased to return home following their West Coast excursion.
These teams engage in a deliberate, low-scoring style of basketball, however the extent to which the score will diminish remains uncertain. I am selecting the Knicks to cover the spread and also opting for the Over at 210.5 points.
Not due to my belief that this would be a high-scoring contest, but because the probability of these teams collectively reaching that number is excessively elevated. The Knicks possess a robust offensive capability, and in their previous four encounters, New York and Miami have consistently surpassed the point total.
Towns recorded 29 points in a Saturday defeat against the Golden State Warriors, during which the Knicks totalled 97 points. I anticipate he will get comparable statistics in tonight’s game, when New York is expected to perform more well offensively.
