Tonight’s NBA matchup will pit the Dallas Mavericks (22-17) against the Denver Nuggets (23-15). The American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, will be the departure point at 9:30 p.m. ET. TNT will carry the game live.
The over/under is set at 235.5 total points, and the Nuggets are 3-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread (Nuggets -3). Dallas is +130 to pull off the upset, while Denver is a -155 favorite to win hands down.
Let’s move on to my NBA choices and predictions for Tuesday night’s Nuggets vs. Mavericks game.
Picks for the Nuggets vs. Mavericks, Prediction Spread
The home team offers value while catching up to 3 or 4 points on the spread, as my model puts Dallas closer to a 2.5-point underdog.
The Moneyline
The market is offering odds as high as +125 or +130, but my prediction is that the Mavericks should be closer to +120.
Caesars now has the best line for the Mavericks vs. Nuggets game, with the Dallas moneyline at +135 as the best option. As always, though, use our live NBA odds page to shop for the best line.
Above/Below
I think this total is acceptable because my estimate of 233 is in line with the current market number, which is between 232.5 and 234.5.
Mavericks Moneyline (+130) is my pick.
Spread between the Nuggets and Mavericks: Nuggets -3
Over/under for the Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 235.5 total points
Moneyline for the Nuggets vs. Mavericks game: Mavericks +130, Nuggets -155
Best pick for Nuggets vs. Mavericks: ML Mavericks (+130)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets NBA Prediction
I had a slight déjà vu feeling when I saw this matchup on the calendar because I was very sure these two teams had already played each other. The two clubs did indeed play in Dallas just two days ago, and the Nuggets prevailed 112-101. Upon examining the NBA schedules for the previous few decades, I was unable to locate any further occasions in which these two teams faced off in consecutive games, much less one in which the same team was at home for both games
It’s not like this is one of those cross-country journeys that teams take at certain stages of the season, after all. Denver and Dallas are only three hours distant by air, but 19 hours apart by car.
Therefore, it would be prudent for bettors to utilize this special scheduling opportunity.
Dallas has an above-.500 record (9-8) when Luka Doncic is not playing, despite the Mavericks still being without him due to a calf injury. Furthermore, it’s never easy to defeat the same team in back-to-back games on their home court, particularly after suffering a double-digit setback.
The Killers Sports database shows that throughout the regular season, home teams in this position with one day off are 18-20 (47.4%) straight up and 21-15-2 (58.3%) against the spread.
With the same parameters, our outcomes improve to 7-2 (77.8%) straight up and against the spread if we also include that the home team is an underdog by 4.5 or less points.
The home club is clearly undervalued in this position after suffering a double-digit loss, based on those metrics. Additionally, the narrow point differential indicates that the two teams are most likely closer than the general public may believe. The point spread probably ignores the sense of pride and desire to get revenge for the double-digit home loss because of the short turnaround.
There is therefore much to enjoy about the Mavericks in this position, and the underdogs’ decisive victories only serve to reinforce this viewpoint.
