The postseason drive at the conclusion of the season is in full swing. The Nuggets are contending for the No. 2 spot, trailing the Thunder, while the Wolves are striving to escape the Play-In Tournament.
I anticipate a high-scoring contest between the Timberwolves and Nuggets at Ball Arena, as these Northwest Division rivals meet for the third time this season. Examine my NBA selections to understand the rationale for wagering on the Over on Wednesday, March 12.
Prediction for Timberwolves versus Nuggets
My optimal wager: Over 236.5 (-110 at bet365)
My assessment
The Denver Nuggets have a record of 37-27-1 for the Over this season, while the Minnesota Timberwolves stand at 37-29. Denver has achieved the Over at the fourth-highest rate in the league, while Minnesota has done it at the ninth-highest rate.
The Nuggets have exceeded the total in 16 of 26 games as the home favorite and in nine of 12 contests against division rivals. The Wolves possess a record of 9-3 for the Over against division rivals and 7-5 as the away underdog. Both direct encounters between these two teams this season have exceeded the total points threshold.
Throughout the season, Denver has achieved an average of 121.5 points per game, ranking third, while Minnesota has averaged 112.8 points per game, placing 19th. Over the past decade, Denver has averaged 121.1 points per game (5th), while Minnesota has reached 120.1 points per game (9th).
The Nuggets possess the second-best offensive rating in the league at 119.5, while the Wolves rank 10th with an offensive rating of 114.5. In the past decade, Denver’s offensive rating has somewhat decreased to 119.2, whilst Minnesota’s has markedly increased to 119.4.
Minnesota possesses the sixth-best defensive rating this season, recorded at 110.9. In the past 10 games, the Wolves’ defensive rating has declined to 114.7, ranking 18th. Denver’s defensive rating of 119.3 ranks as the fifth lowest over that period.
Neither club has exhibited outstanding defensive performance since the All-Star break, while both offenses are thriving. Anticipate a prolific scoring contest in Denver.
Nikola Jokic is averaging precisely 13 rebounds per game this season and has exceeded this statistic in 35 of 59 games played. This encompasses seven consecutive and ten of his past eleven leading into tonight’s primetime confrontation with Minnesota. Jokic has surpassed the Over in 16 of 28 home games, while the Wolves have permitted the fifth-highest number of rebounds in their last 10 games.
Minnesota has achieved victory and covered the spread in five consecutive games, albeit all these victories were against opponents with records below .500. Notwithstanding the subpar performance of their adversaries, the Wolves are currently on a winning streak and are likely to secure a cover against the Nuggets in what is anticipated to be a competitive match. I anticipate the Nuggets to secure a victory at home, and I am significantly more inclined to wager on the money line rather than the point spread.
