Ence’s optimal strategy: The Virginia Tech Hokies appear largely unfamiliar, and our expert college football predictions anticipate that Minnesota will capitalise on the Hokies’ inexperience.
One of the concluding bowl games of the 2024 college football season will feature an individual covered in mayonnaise, and our predictions for the Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech matchup anticipate the Virginia Tech Hokies to secure victory and cover the spread at the Duke’s Mayo Bowl this evening.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers experienced five defeats this season, including narrow losses to Michigan and Penn State by a total of five points. They aim to conclude the season with a victory against a Hokie club that has experienced significant roster depletion and will feature numerous young players receiving substantial playing time.
The kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Prediction and optimal wager for Minnesota versus Virginia Tech
Which team will prevail in the matchup between Minnesota and Virginia Tech?
I am supporting the Gophers to win by a margin of at least ten points.
Virginia Tech enters this bowl game much diminished, with several players either opting out or transferring. The Hokies were initially deficient offensively, and now they must devise a strategy to advance the ball without the majority of its key players.
PJ Fleck has achieved victory in all five bowl games as the head coach of Minnesota, successfully covering the spread in four of those contests. His defence generates turnovers while his offence maintains possession, and the majority of his starters will participate in the game. Consistency and familiarity will be crucial for Minnesota to secure victory.
My optimal wager: Minnesota -9 (-110 at BetMGM)
Selections chosen at the time of composition may not correspond with current odds.
My evaluation
If the Virginia Tech Hokies were entering this game with a complete roster, I would find this matchup quite compelling. Regrettably, this is not accurate, since Virginia Tech has had 21 athletes entering the transfer portal, along with an additional five seniors who have chosen to opt out.
The Hokies are not only missing several starters on both offence and defence, but they are also expected to have only eight players available for this game. The starting quarterback, Kyron Drones, who was sidelined for the last games of the season due to various injuries, seems to be unavailable. Backup quarterback Pop Watson III is expected to start once more, as he did in the season-concluding victory against Virginia.
The individual taking snaps for the Hokies will confront the Minnesota Golden Gophers absent leading rusher Bhayshul Tuten and probably without backup rushing back Malachi Thomas. He will also be taking snaps behind an offensive line missing starter centre Braelin Moore and left tackle Xavier Chaplin.
The defence will also appear somewhat unfamiliar. Alongside the exit of defensive coordinator Chris Marve, the Hokies’ secondary has been significantly depleted. They will be missing probably their three most proficient players on that side of the field, a severe setback for a defence that ranks 39th in success rate and 28th in net EPA per drive.
This is the reason Minnesota’s line has progressively shifted in their favour during the week, and I am uncertain if it has adjusted sufficiently at this point. Despite full availability, the Virginia Tech offence exhibited difficulties, particularly when compelled to engage in aerial plays. Such is expected to occur on Friday against a Minnesota defence featuring an exceptional front four.
The Gophers defence is quite effective, ranking in the Top 10 for passing yards permitted per game and 22nd in net EPA per play. Their sole significant deficiency was their inability to exit the field on third down. However, given that the majority of the offensive line is unacquainted with each other and a young quarterback is reliant on his third-string running back, the Hokies are ill-equipped to capitalise on that situation.
Conversely, Minnesota will have starting quarterback Max Brosmer at their disposal. He had a commendable season, achieving a completion rate of at least 60% in all but two starts and recording only one interception in his last seven games. Although he will not have the primary receiver Daniel Jackson available, he will have Darius Taylor to depend on for the rushing attack.
Minnesota will possess a significant advantage on both offence and defence over a Hokie club that will be hindered by inexperience and insufficient cohesion. Brosmer will frequently pass the ball, exploiting the inexperienced Virginia Tech secondary, while PJ Fleck will successfully cover the spread in a bowl game for the sixth time in six attempts as Minnesota’s head coach.
Minnesota prefers to compel rivals to sustain lengthy drives in the first half, as only two of its last seven adversaries exceeded the 10-point threshold before halftime. USC, UCLA, Illinois, and Maryland each recorded precisely 10 points in the first half, however Wisconsin failed to score.
Considering the challenges faced by the offensive line and the quarterback’s lack of experience, I anticipate the Gopher defence will restrict yet another opponent below that threshold before the break.
Jameson Geers recorded a total of 25 receptions for the season, with eight of those occurring in a single game versus Rutgers. Nonetheless, he accumulated a minimum of 20 receiving yards in six of his twelve appearances. This encompasses three games in which he recorded only one reception exceeding 20 yards.
Jackson comprised about 33% of Minnesota’s receiving yardage and approximately 30% of the team’s receptions during the season. Geers ranked fourth in receptions and receiving yards, however he was tied for the most touchdowns; I anticipate that Brosmer will rely on him more in this context. This should facilitate surpassing the 20-yard threshold once more.
