In University Park, Pennsylvania, the Ohio State Buckeyes play the Penn State Nittany Lions. FS1 will go off at 6:30 p.m. ET.
With a moneyline of -150, Penn State is favoured by 3 points on the spread. A total of 150 points is established.
Here are my NCAA basketball predictions and picks for the January 30, 2025, Ohio State vs. Penn State game.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction and Picks
Penn State -3 or better is my pick.
Spread for Ohio State vs. Penn State: Ohio State +2.5, Penn State -2.5
Over/under for Ohio State vs. Penn State: 147.5
Penn State ML -165, Ohio State ML +140 is the moneyline for Ohio State vs. Penn State.
Preview of Ohio State vs. Penn State College Basketball
My favourite place of the week is right here.
Following consecutive victories over Purdue and Iowa, Ohio State is due for a defeat. After suffering crushing road defeats to Michigan and Iowa (by a combined five points after the Hawkeyes and Wolverines shot 45% from three), Penn State is due for a comeback victory.
Based on Haslametrics’ away-from-home statistic, the Buckeyes rank 338th nationally, indicating that they are not a very good road club. A difficult 14-point loss at Texas A&M, a 34-point loss at Maryland, and a double-overtime escape against a lowly Minnesota are just a few examples of their previous genuine road performances.
In the meantime, I’ve been rather impressed by Penn State’s previous three home games, which included a hard-fought victory over Northwestern, a one-point defeat to Oregon as 2.5-point favourites, and an eight-point victory over Rutgers to end a four-game losing skid.
I think Thursday’s performance by the Nittany Lions will be comparable.
I’ve said it before on these online pages, but it’s worth saying again: I have a very low opinion of Ohio State.
Unsustainable 3-point shooting splits for a club that doesn’t fit the mould of a strong spacing and shooting team are the reason behind the Buckeyes’ success. They hit 48% from three, but they still looked good against Purdue. Despite their impressive performance against Iowa, the Hawkeyes shot 28% from three.
While opponents shot less than 30% from three, the Buckeyes shot 45%, allowing them to dominate the non-conference. After the regression monster arrived, they are currently 4-5 in Big Ten play, and I have a feeling that trend will continue.
Meechie Johnson Jr., Micah Parrish, Devin Royal, John Mobley Jr., and Bruce Thornton lead Ohio State’s off-the-bounce dribble-penetration offence.
However, Mike Rhoades’ aggressive, hard-hedging point-of-attack ball-screen coverage defence, which excels at dribble-penetration denial, will be the target of the Buckeyes’ offensive run.
Pick-and-pop big men and inventive short rollers who can take advantage of the Nittany Lions’ overhelp on the ball-screen handler are the best method to get past Penn State’s defence. However, neither Aaron Bradshaw nor Sean Stewart do that.
Additionally, Ohio State has a serious turnover problem. According to KenPom, the Buckeyes have the lowest offensive turnover rate (20%) in the Big Ten. With the exception of Michigan, they have committed more turnovers than any other team in the conference. In four of their last seven games, they have thrown the ball away at least 14 times.
Ace Baldwin Jr.’s quick hands might be negated because the majority of these mistakes aren’t live giveaways, which is surprising. The idea is still that Penn State, which thrives on turnovers, is not a good fit for a team with turnover problems.
The way Ohio State’s defence and Penn State’s offence complement one other bothers me. Baldwin’s ball-screen creation is invited into the middle of the floor by the Buckeyes’ drop-coverage play, where he should be able to create.
In any case, Penn State cannot compete with the location.
