The Heat have won two games in a row, largely because of a big lineup that has managed to be successful on both sides of the court despite the incessant hubbub caused by circulating rumours of a Jimmy Butler deal and frequent suspensions. Tyler Herro has also put up impressive offensive efforts for Miami.
On Wednesday, January 29, Herro should have another strong game in terms of scoring, according to my Cavaliers vs. Heat predictions. To find out why you should take the Over on Herro’s points prop, read my NBA picks.
Heat vs. Cavaliers prediction
My best option
Herro, Tyler More than 24.5 points (bet365’s -105)
My evaluation
We can definitely outperform Tyler Herro, whose scoring line is set at 23.5 for -120 odds. We can obtain this alternative score line at -105 for an additional point. In a fantastic matchup, I’ll go with the Over because I like those odds more.
This season, opponents have dominated the Cleveland Cavaliers defence, as the Cavaliers have given up the most points per game to the position (26.6). Cleveland has given up an absurd 31.9 points to opposition floor generals over the last seven games, which is by far the most in the Association. The Cavaliers’ perimeter defence has allowed 4.9 triples in that time frame.
With Jimmy Butler out of the lineup, Herro has taken on a heavier offensive role, and he ought to be allowed to go all out against the Cavaliers defence. On December 8 at Kaseya Centre, Herro scored 34 points against the Cavaliers, finishing with his second-highest scoring performance of the season. I’m looking forward to his encore performance tonight.
This season, both clubs have a 55-36 record overall and have hit the Over more often than not. Cleveland’s defensive rating is 26th during the last 10 games, but it is 11th overall for the season. In previous weeks, opposing teams have had no issue scoring against the Cavaliers, and this game should help the Miami Heat’s subpar offence.
The Miami defence will be a formidable opponent for the healthy Cavaliers, but Cleveland’s offence has been outstanding this season and should be able to score a respectable number of points away from home. With this low total, I’ll take the over.
Over his last four games in the starting lineup, Kel’el Ware has averaged 17 points per game and scored at least 14 points three times. As Miami tries out different lineups and keeps giving him more chances, he has scored 16.1 points in his previous eight games overall.
He has scored 14 points six times in eight games when he has played at least 20 minutes. He has averaged 21 points and hit the Over in five games with at least 30 minutes.
I’ll gladly take the over because his points line is set far too low.
Herro has scored 25 points or more in 20 games this season. He has averaged 26.8 points in his last eight games, including five of those games. Herro shot 46.9% from the field and attempted 17.4 field goals in his first 36 games. He hit 40.2% of his triples and went 3.8 for 9.5 from beyond the arc. Herro has attempted 18.8 shots and shot 50% from the field in his last eight games. During that time, he is 4.1 of 10.5 on 3-pointers.
