The Rutgers Scarlet Knights, despite being the No. 11 seed in the Big Ten tournament, are a formidable opponent that few choose to confront.
The USC Trojans cannot evade the Scarlet Knights or their formidable duo of Dylan Harper and Ace Baley.
The potential of the Scarlet Knights is too significant to overlook, which is why my predictions for the USC vs. Rutgers matchup and my college basketball selections on Wednesday, March 12, favor them unequivocally.
Prediction for USC versus Rutgers
Which team will prevail in the matchup between USC and Rutgers?
Game models favor USC in a closely contested matchup, although betting markets are shifting towards Rutgers. I anticipate the Scarlet Knights will leverage their star power to get to the second round of the Big Ten tournament.
My optimal wager: Rutgers moneyline (+100 at bet365)
My assessment
The spread commenced with the USC Trojans as 1-point neutral site favorites and has fluctuated, with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights shifting from +1 to -1 and reverting.
Game forecasts somewhat favored the Trojans. The majority of models concurred with the initial prediction, indicating that USC would narrowly surpass Rutgers by a margin of no more than three points. Nonetheless, the Scarlet Knights are a formidable team to manage, mostly because of their potential star power.
Freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are projected to be selected No. 2 and No. 3 in the 2025 NBA Draft, respectively, with the duo averaging a combined 36.8 points, constituting 48% of the team’s total offensive production. A sufficient quantity of professional-caliber skill may dominate a game and defeat any adversary, provided conditions are favorable.
Upon reviewing their record, the Knights had the worst inconsistency among teams in the Big Ten. One week, they were challenging Alabama to the limit, and the next, they were faltering against Ohio State. Since the commencement of conference play, they have achieved consecutive victories on only two occasions and endured several two- and three-game losing streaks.
By mid-February, Coach Steve Pikiell’s team was positioned outside the Big Ten tournament cutoff, requiring a finish within the Top 15 to qualify. The threat appeared to invigorate Rutgers, which performed robustly in the last five games of the schedule.
The Scarlet Knights achieved a record of 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread during that home stretch. After languishing in the lower echelon of league measures for the majority of the season, Rutgers ascended to second in offensive rating during this period, highlighted by a 95-85 victory against Southern California on February 23.
“These individuals have improved,” Pikiell stated to the media following Sunday’s victory against Minnesota. Excluding the Purdue game, we have performed commendably in basketball during this concluding round. With a three-second lead at Michigan, we would be experiencing a favorable momentum.
The Trojans, conversely, lack comparable momentum.
USC carries a 1-6 straight-up record in its last seven games into Gainbridge Fieldhouse, with defense being its primary issue. Adversaries accumulated a minimum of 82 points in five of the six defeats, and USC’s defensive rating has deteriorated to the second lowest in the Big Ten.
The Trojans have struggled to secure victories in away games during their inaugural year in the conference, resulting in a 3-7 straight-up record in genuine road contests and a 3-9 overall record away from home (4-8 against the spread).
This journey to Indianapolis represents yet another destination for the Trojans, who concluded conference play with four of their last six games away from home and will now compete off-site for the fifth time in 20 days.
Southern California appeared fatigued in its season finale, suffering a defeat of 90-63 following a brief trip to UCLA last Saturday. Following USC’s concession of 42 points in the paint and an opponent shooting over 61% from the field, head coach Eric Musselman admonished his squad for their lack of passion, particularly in a crucial conference and rivalry contest.
Maintaining stride with Rutgers’ elite may be a considerable challenge for USC throughout the arduous final phase. The Scarlet Knights possess a significantly improved mentality, favorable momentum, and a too high potential to overlook.
The Scarlet Knights regard this event as their “second season” and has the capability to challenge any club.
Dylan Harper is anticipated to score over 15 points, with certain models predicting over 20. He achieved a score of 25 versus USC in the previous encounter.
Ace Bailey exhibits inconsistent performance in rebounding. He recorded only three rebounds against USC in the last encounter, while both teams had exceptional shooting performance. Forecasts indicate a minimum of seven boards this evening.
