To advance to the NFC Divisional Playoffs, the Washington Commanders will need a quarterback miracle from rookie Jayden Daniels if they want to defeat the Detroit Lions. However, Daniels is said to be facing a specific scheme in which he has “by far been at his worst” since being draughted as the second overall pick in 2024.
Bradley Locker of Pro Football Focus claims that defence in question is the Cover 2. On 52.9% of snaps, the Lions’ defence has used Cover 1 or Cover 3; he wants them to break with their formula. They have a Cover-2 rating of only 12.3%.
On the contrary, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is Locker’s first choice, and he wants Daniels to face a coverage that the explosive quarterback despises. In his match against Cover 2, Daniels was at his worst, as Locker explained. As a quarterback, he ranks 32nd among 43 eligible quarterbacks with a 58.9 PFF passing grade versus such looks and 12th with a 5.0% turnover-worthy play rate. On the other hand, Daniels has a passing grade of 82.4 PFF when faced with Cover 3 and 68.0 PFF when faced with Cover 1.
On January 18, at Ford Field, it will be difficult to keep two safety positions deep and force Daniels to throw into any gaps amongst five defensive backs who are sliding underneath. It may be prudent for Glenn to follow a tactic that the Lions used successfully in Week 18, an approach that has also failed Daniels multiple times this season.
The Use of Adjustment by Lions There Has Been Prior Battle Between Commanders
After he devised a defence to thwart the Minnesota Vikings in the last week of the regular season, Glenn assisted the Lions in securing the top seed in their national conference. The strategy called for press coverage and heavy hits on quarterback Sam Darnold and his top wide receivers.
The strategy was successful because the Lions “blitzed Darnold on 54.5% of his pass attempts and pressured him on 59.1%,” as reported by ESPN’s Benjamin Solak, citing Next Gen Stats. With an equal number of additional rushers, the defence was in “man coverage on 66.7% of dropbacks, the 2nd-highest rate by a defence in a game this season,” according to Next Gen Stats.
Recently, Daniels has also had trouble with the same mix of blitzing and one-on-one coverage. For example, in Week 10, the Pittsburgh Steelers targeted him with the blitz nearly 60% of the time.
Daniels was able to keep his cool under pressure in Tampa, but the Lions’ conservative style will present him with other challenges.
Cover 2 Presents Jayden Daniels with a New Form of Challenge
When faced with a seven-man coverage shell, which eliminates room in the centre of the field and cuts off deep areas of the field, Daniels will have to be fast with his reads. Thankfully for the Commanders, that’s an area where the 24-year-old has shown improvement throughout the season.
Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury explained how Daniels was adept at quickly getting through his progressions as a Heisman Trophy winner at LSU, per ESPN’s John Keim: “Kingsbury said Daniels’ biggest jump from Jr to Sr year was going through multiple reads, getting to his 3-4th target. What was the most surprising thing to me?
The Lions’ acquisition of Za’Darius Smith is one factor contributing to their emphasis on the pocket. The Cleveland Browns traded for the adaptable edge rusher in November, and since then, he has four sacks while applying pressure from any spot up front.
Thanks to Smith, the Lions now have “the greatest pass rush in terms of pressure rate since they traded for Za’Darius Smith in the NFL,” as summarised by Yahoo! Sports’ Nate Tice on the Ross Tucker Football Podcast. It wasn’t until I looked it up that I realised that. With four men on the field, they dominate in pass rush.
