Washington State (19-13) and San Francisco (23-8) will square off in tonight’s quarterfinal WCC Championship clash, so grab a cup of coffee or tea and settle in for a late night of basketball.
Wazzu will be looking to continue their winning streak against a USF team that is missing key players after last night’s 94-77 thrashing of LMU.
In my college basketball predictions and picks for Sunday, March 9, you’ll find that I’m supporting the underdog in the Washington State vs. San Francisco matchup.
Prediction for the Washington State vs. San Francisco matchup
The match between San Francisco and Washington State: Who will come out on top?
To pull off the upset, I’m going with Washington State (+180). This week, San Francisco received some devastating news: standout guard Marcus Williams would not be participating in any games owing to concerns about a possible violation of NCAA rules. A strong defense and two outstanding starting guards were two of USF’s selling points in March, but without them, the squad no longer has the same allure. After dominating LMU in the third round, Wazzu is prepared to cash in.
At bet365, Washington State +5 (-110), is my best bet.
My evaluation
My understanding of this statement is a bit hazy. Two times during the regular season, these teams faced. In Pullman, the Washington State Cougars were two-point favorites, and in the Sobrato Center, the San Francisco Dons were three-and-a-half-point favorites. This quarterfinal clash takes place on a neutral court, so USF would be -1 instead of -5.
Something is amiss when you consider that Marcus Williams, who is second in scoring (15.1 ppg) and assists (4.3), will apparently not be able to play in the game. Since only Williams and Malik Thomas (19.1 ppg) are contributing double-digit points for the Dons, the entire strategy is now uncertain.
At home, USF was unbeatable (16-1) but on the road, they were somewhat more formidable (5-5). According to Haslametrics’ away from home metric, the Dons are ranked 324th.
On Saturday, Wazzu defeated LMU by a score of 17 points, and I became a believer after the game. I had second thoughts about the Cougars because of their disappointing regular season end (2-9 in their last 11 games), but maybe I should give them another go.
This squad is competing in a different conference with a new head coach and nearly a whole new set of players. Following realignment, this is how life is. As with any journey, there will be challenges, particularly when your club is one of just two in the league that isn’t accustomed with the new locations and playing styles.
Two Cougars, 6-foot-10 Ethan Price and Dane Erikstrup, are among five players averaging double figures in scoring, with Nate Calmese leading the way at 15.2 points per game. They may be playing in their second game in as many days, but their generosity with the ball (26 assists in two games in a row) suggests they can make it.
Obviously, a defense that ranks 198th in adjusted efficiency (KenPom) and allows 78.1 points per game is cause for concern. Without Williams, USF’s Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating (EvanMiya) and floor general (team-high 28.8% assist rate) are both left unanswered questions. Perhaps the Cougs couldn’t have asked for a better timing for his departure.
After three rounds of the WCC Championship, teams have gone 5-0 O/U, so I’m not sure I want to bet on the Under. Given the unknowns around USF’s offensive strategy without Williams, I find it hard to resist the temptation to side with the Under.
As of February 1st, the Dons’ adjusted efficiency ranking was 27th, a testament to how great their defense has been (BartTorvik). Chris Gerlufsen is an excellent coach, and I have faith that he will play to his team’s strengths by putting their formidable defense to work against Wazzu’s scorching offense, which has scored 90 points or more in three games in a row.
Using their perimeter shooting (36.5 percent) and ability to create scoring opportunities (32nd in near-proximity field goal percentage per Haslametrics), the Cougars are a formidable opponent. In theory, USF’s long, athletic, and well-coached defense should stifle some of those cuts to the paint and slow down the game. The Bulldogs rank third in the nation for 3-point percentage allowed at 28.2%. Cover your mouth and nose and take the Pill.
