On Saturday, the Seahawks experienced the worst-case scenario.
The Seahawks could only watch helplessly as Los Angeles held on in an unlikely manner to defeat the Cardinals 13-9, needing a victory by Arizona over the Rams to maintain anything but slender prospects of a postseason berth.
With the victory, the Rams’ record now stands at 10-6 against Seattle’s 9-7. The two teams will face in the regular-season finale at SoFi Stadium the following weekend.
Although a victory by Seattle would tie the Rams, the Seahawks are statistically unlikely to qualify for the playoffs due to Los Angeles’ advantage in the strength of victory tiebreaker. After L.A.’s victory, Seattle’s chances of qualifying for the postseason were fewer than 1%, according to The Upshot’s playoff calculator.
In order to set up a win-and-in situation at SoFi next week, the Seahawks were hoping for an Arizona victory on Saturday due to the Rams’ SOV tiebreaker advantage. However, that won’t occur right now.
By the completion of Sunday’s games, the NFL is anticipated to reveal the times and dates of the games the following week.
Given that Arizona was five yards from a potential game-winning touchdown when a Kyler Murray pass went off tight end Trey McBride’s helmet and was intercepted by Rams cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon, who was a Seahawk in 2021 before being traded to Pittsburgh late in training camp, with 37 seconds left, the Rams’ victory was particularly frustrating for the Seahawks.
Arizona missed their first extra point of the season and only managed three points on three different possessions within the Rams’ 14-yard line, capping a game of wasted opportunities.
After a 1-4 start, the Rams’ victory was their ninth in their previous 11 games.
The Rams’ victory on Saturday would have guaranteed them the NFC West if the Seahawks hadn’t defeated the Bears 6-3 on Thursday.
Instead, with a victory at SoFi next week, Seattle can still tie the Rams for first place in the NFC West.
However, as mentioned, if both teams finish at 10-7, the strength of victory will give L.A. a prohibitive advantage in the tiebreaker.
The Rams defeated Seattle 26–20 at Lumen Field in November, therefore the strength of victory tiebreaker will be used first. All other tiebreakers, including head-to-head, will be equal.
When the Bengals managed to defeat Denver in overtime, 30-24, earlier in the day, the Rams’ lead in SOV further grew.
As a result, the Rams now need 2.5 victories (or three, if no ties are assumed) to secure the strength of victory tiebreaker over Seattle this weekend.
The Rams might win the necessary games by the end of Sunday if they defeat Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, Washington, and San Francisco this weekend.
From Seattle’s perspective, the Seahawks need to defeat the Jets, Miami, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Detroit at least three times in order to survive.
Here’s a brief overview of those games:
Buffalo vs. New York Jets, Sunday, 10 a.m. The Bills are 9.5 points ahead of the Jets, who are 4-11.
Cleveland vs. Miami, Sunday, 1:05 p.m. Against a 3-12 Browns club that is playing out the string, Miami, which is still in the running for the playoffs, is a three-point favorite.
Minnesota at. Green Bay, Sunday, 1:25 p.m. In a game they must win to maintain their hopes of winning the NFC North and the top overall seed in the NFC, the Vikings are a 1.5-point favorite. Green Bay has already secured a position as a wild card.
— Washington vs. Atlanta, Sunday, 5:20 p.m. As the Falcons try to stave off Tampa Bay in order to win the NFC South, Seahawks supporters can comfortably cheer for former Husky Michael Penix Jr. as he makes his second NFL start. Washington has a 3.5-point advantage.
San Francisco vs. Detroit, Monday, 5:15 p.m. The Seahawks can support their rival 49ers even more if the Rams haven’t yet won the SOV. The Lions need to win to maintain their lead in the NFC North race and the fight for the top spot, while San Francisco has nothing to lose. Detroit has a 3.5-point advantage.
Next week, the Rams still have a chance to win the SOV tiebreaker.
According to The Upshot’s playoff model, a loss by all five would only reduce L.A.’s chances of winning the division to 98%, highlighting the lengthy odds Seattle faces.
However, Seattle will at least be in the running by that slim margin going into the final weekend if Los Angeles doesn’t get the victories it needs this week.
